honest numbers
our backtests, unredacted.
soccer−2.0% roivs best market prices · 298 bets · 2025-26
ufc56.4% accuracyvs ~65% bookmaker bar · 1,714 fights since 2020
f1fav 47.5% · top-3 81%242 races
hockey56.6% accuracypicking winners in the nhl is hard. we said honest.
nba65.1% accuracyfavorites do most of the heavy lifting
mlb55.0% accuracybaseball humbles everyone
nfl62.2% accuracyany given sunday, quantified
rugby70.2% accuracybig favorites, short prices — mind the odds
cricket50.8% accuracybasically a coin flip. we publish it anyway.no model here beats the closing line. what you get is fair-price context, market discipline, and clv tracking — the scoreboard sharps actually use. if your clv runs green, you're doing something right.
the data
free data. fresh nightly.
01
free sources
football-data · understat · fbref · ufcstats · espn · jolpica — and friends. all public, all free, every number traceable to where it came from.
02
nightly refresh
results, ratings, and prices rebuild overnight, every night, on cron. wake up to numbers that already know what happened yesterday.
03
honest by default
every model backtested walk-forward — and the ugly numbers ship too. $0/month, forever.